2008 Campaign Still Unpredictable
While Rudy Giuliani is receiving substantial mention in the media lately as the early voting draws near, his strategy of focusing on large electoral states and abandoning the early states like Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina is similar to the chatter than accompanied the prolonged anticipation of Fred Thompson entering the Presidential campaign earlier in the year. It would be fair to say that although Thompson’s entry strategy did not launch him to a commanding lead in the national polls he has established a momentary first place followed by a longer stay at second or third until Huckabee’s late surprising surge. But Giuliani may be risking his long term lead in the national polls with the big state only strategy. Or perhaps his campaign is concerned about the thin advantage of 911 celebrity status and the chance that it will not continue to be a strength.
Unless Mike Huckabee’s recent surge in the polls can sustain a victory in Iowa his campaign’s current success may wane as the next few states begin voting. Besides the religious right or evangelicals or Baptists or Mormons, the unusual focus on candidates and their religious faith may not only be a big question mark for Mitt Romney. There are other positions held and faiths practiced by American voters as well as those not practicing or responding to faith whose candidate selection may not have been properly factored into the election forecasts or polls.
News of the demise of the McCain campaign may have been not only premature but just plain wrong. Certainly it is a reminder of the need to await the song of the fat lady before drawing conclusions. That can be said about the three candidates described in the first two paragraphs as well. Not that long ago when the results of campaign fund raising efforts were published, all the talk was on the impressive totals of the Democratic party versus the GOP. Clinton and Obama were exalted as the warchest winners giving rise to expected campaign success by the dollars. That is when some, including this blog, suggested it may well be over for Senator John McCain. How things change. Now the Clinton campaign may have traded places with the McCain campaign in terms of whose future is being predicted as dismal. Based on the earlier experience, no such predictions will be offered this time around.
But it should be mentioned that former Senator John Edwards was doing very well in Iowa early in the campaign. By virtue of all the media attention focused on Clinton and Obama the Edwards campaign may have been unfairly ignored. The Clinton campaign may receive less momentum from a first place showing in Iowa as would either Obama or Edwards. Being considered the default nominee and leading national polls from the beginning, a loss in Iowa would be a severe blow to the Clinton campaign. An Edwards victory in Iowa would really shake things up for the Democratic party race.
If any of the remaining candidates not mentioned here have a strong showing or unthinkable upset victory in Iowa it may not cause more than a momentary ripple. But then no predictions were going to be made here today. If expected outcomes are less certain now than in the recent past it may be a good thing. Just knowing that one of the candidates will be the next President of the United States can keep voters occupied with ‘what ifs’ about the next four or five years.