Another Ticking Bomb
Avian flu may be the best example of a potential catastrophic event that will be largely ignored or shrouded with incompetence or sheer apathy right up until the moment it becomes a pandemic. While considerable focus and attention was placed on the topic early on, since then the tiny foe has systematically gone about its business with little opposition from any source capable of mounting a reasonable defense.
Not like there are no other major issues about which we should be concerned. However, avian influenza is a threat that can make all the others rather moot. It is the sort of problem that displays no discrimination or prejudice or other human attribute when selecting targets. Whatever can be defined as part of the biosphere is on its list of targets. No socio-economic or geopolitical considerations here. No personal preferences or bias or any other subjective analysis clouds its judgment. As a matter of fact, there is no judgment. It’s not that kind of arrangement.
Most people are aware that H5N1 is only advancing as slow and methodical as it
has for lack of successful method to infect other species. There have also been reports that much progress has been made in developing vaccines. Reports in addition to the two presented here have suggested enough vaccine can be produced but there may be shortcomings attached to this solution. And of course, the early discussions made many comparisons to the 1918 flu epidemic as well as the frequency of such events and that we are overdue for another.
The primary point of this post is to publish another warning that there may be a serious lack of concern and response to the risk from this particular foe. The virus is extending the courtesy of giving the human species a great deal of time to solve the problem. But just like the fact that this living organism does not apply subjective analysis to its daily business, the time allowed thus far to prepare ourselves is simply the result of a natural sequence of events. If we end up not being prepared when the threat advances we will have no one to blame but ourselves.
Scientists Say Bird Flu Spreading in Several Asian, African Countries
By Luis Ramirez
Bangkok
07 November 2007
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Nations in Asia and Africa have had much success in stopping the spread of bird flu, but experts meeting in Bangkok this week say the H5N1 virus continues to spread in a number of countries. VOA’s Luis Ramirez reports from Bangkok.
Experts with the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization say bird flu is still considered an animal disease, affecting only a small number of humans so far. But they say the threat of a human pandemic, in which millions could die, is still very real.
Dr. David Nabarro, the United Nations’ senior Coordinator for Avian and Human Influenza, told reporters in Bangkok Wednesday that while most nations have made progress in containing the virus’ spread, there remain some problem areas.
“We’ve seen during the last three years that countries have invested a lot of resources in vaccination of poultry, in improving veterinary services, and also in what we call bio-security, in order to try to reduce the risk of…avian influenza continuing to circulate in poultry or in wild birds,” he said. “We’ve seen in many countries, extraordinary success in getting this under control: (but) not everywhere. There’s some problems in the region.”
He says the virus continues to spread in Bangladesh, Indonesia and Vietnam in Asia, and Egypt and Nigeria in Africa.
Experts say nations that have yet to develop an export-oriented poultry industry are finding it more difficult to contain the disease.
They say Thailand, as one example, has had greater success in controlling bird flu, because it already had a veterinary system in place to support its sizable poultry exports.
Another challenge that could hinder efforts to contain the spread of H5N1 is the reluctance by some countries to hand over tissue samples of bird flu cases. China is one of them. Dr. Nabarro says negotiations continue in efforts to get Beijing to disclose more data and materials that could help scientists develop a vaccine.
“There are some situations in which countries have asked for clarification on the benefits that they’re likely to get as a result of sharing samples, and there is some international negotiation under way at the moment to try to establish a satisfactory basis for sample-sharing by seeing whether or not it will be possible to ensure that those who do provide samples are able to benefit from products that are produced with the help of those samples,” he said.
Experts say Beijing’s concerns have to do with intellectual property rights to any vaccine that is developed with data or research originating in China. Indonesia has hesitated to supply tissue samples for similar reasons.
Representatives of several nations are scheduled to meet in Geneva later this month to address those concerns and talk about setting up a new international standard of sharing information and samples.
The H5N1 strain of the avian influenza virus mainly affects birds and has struck primarily in Asia, but it has also appeared in Europe and Africa. Since its appearance in Hong Kong in 1997, the H5N1 virus has killed at least 211 people in eleven countries. Tens of millions of poultry have died or been slaughtered due to the disease.
The World Health Organization says all evidence to date indicates that close contact with dead or sick birds is the principal source of human infection. Scientists say they are mainly concerned about the virus in animals for now, but fear that the virus could mutate and become easily transmissible between humans.
UN Expert Says World Unprepared for Avian Flu Pandemic
By Lisa Schlein
Geneva
24 October 2007
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A top United Nations expert on Avian influenza says the world is not yet ready to protect itself from a potential avian influenza pandemic that could kill millions of people. He says it will take another few years before countries complete their pandemic preparedness plans. Lisa Schlein reports for VOA from Geneva.
Health experts are concerned that the deadly H5N1 bird flu virus will transform itself into the virus that causes the next human pandemic.
David Nabarro is senior U.N. systems coordinator for avian and human influenza. He says many uncertainties surround the disease. But, what is certain, he says, is that there will be a human influenza pandemic some time in the future.
He says no one knows when or where this will happen or how severe it will be. But, he says, given the potential magnitude of human suffering and of the economic consequences, it is essential to be prepared.
He says most countries have some kind of pandemic preparedness plan in the works.
“Unfortunately, only a relatively small proportion are adequately prepared to keep going in the event that the pandemic has massive absenteeism associated with it. And we need hard work for at least two or three years more to make sure that the whole world is properly pandemic ready. It is not easy. But, I will tell you one thing: being prepared for a pandemic will help countries to be prepared for other mega-catastrophes, not just those that are due to infectious disease,” said Dr. Nabarro.
The World Health Organization reports bird flu has spread to about 60 countries and territories. It says the H5N1 virus appears to be entrenched in the poultry populations of Indonesia, northern Egypt and parts of Nigeria, Bangladesh, China and Vietnam.
Bird flu remains a largely animal disease. But, latest figures show about 350 people who had close contact with diseased poultry have become infected and more than 200 have died.
Dr. Nabarro says health experts fear that one day H5N1 or another animal virus will mutate into a form that could spread easily from one human to another.
In anticipation of this, he says WHO is working with national authorities to make sure they will be able to respond promptly to contain the virus wherever it emerges.
“That prompt response has to be within days,” said Dr. Nabarro. “WHO has worked with countries to develop protocols for rapid response and has also been ensuring that there are adequate stockpiles of Oseltamivir or Tamiflu, which is part of the rapid response. WHO is also working on trying to ensure that there will be a plan that can be put into place for rapid production of pandemic vaccines once the new virus appears and also is looking at the possibility of vaccines against H5N1 in humans stockpiled.”
Dr. Nabarro says it will take drug companies about six months to manufacture vaccines against avian influenza once a pandemic appears and the viral strain is identified. He says millions of people could die during that period.
Should avian influenza strike, he says people should stay away from crowds. They should wear protective gear, such as masks and they should use the anti-viral drug Tamiflu.