
Giuliani and McCain announcing last June they would drop out of competition at the Iowa Straw Poll was mentioned in the last post here as avoiding a damaging downside. It was also described as a lack of confidence in their national poll rankings.
Giuliani, McCain snub Iowa straw poll
Michael Finnegan, Los Angeles Times
Thursday, June 7, 2007
(06-07) 04:00 PDT Manchester, N.H. — An Iowa straw poll that traditionally has served as an early benchmark in the Republican presidential nomination race lost much of its luster Wednesday, as first Rudy Giuliani and then John McCain decided not to compete in it.
The article above indicated the possible setaback faced by Giulians as well as McCain by competing in the straw poll. Giuliani’s campaign said the straw poll was not important but they would show for the Iowa Caucus. The important thing is Giuliani and McCain saved several million dollars by not attending.
Trying to move the straw poll to insignificance by not showing up may work for Giuliani and McCain, but what does it say about their campaigns? Perhaps leading the national polls is also insignificant or a false indicator of strength.
In 1987, 1995 and 1999 the straw poll 1st or 2nd place candidate won the Iowa Caucus. Giuliani, McCain and Fred Thompson are betting there is less risk in skipping the straw poll than there is in defying history. Not only has first or second in the straw poll matched the winner of the Iowa Caucus, but the fate of Caucus winners and losers also has a dramatic implication.
The Iowa Caucus was rendered insignificant at least once in the past but the circumstances will not be matched in 2008. Scenarios like the one described at Wikipedia (below) may in part have influenced the decisions of the three Republicans to skip the straw poll.
The nadir of the caucuses was in 1992, when Iowa Senator Tom Harkin ran for the Democratic nomination. None of the other Democratic candidates chose to compete in Iowa, which minimized its importance in the nomination process. President Bush was unopposed on the Republican side, and the media completely ignored the state.
Another excerpt from Wiki puts the importance of the Iowa Caucus in perspective for the 2008 campaign.
While they have been a financial boon to the state, the political value of the Iowa caucuses has gone up and down over the years. In 1988, for example, the candidates who eventually won the nominations of both parties came in third in Iowa. In elections without a sitting President or Vice President, the Iowa winner only goes on to the nomination about half the time.
While a near 50/50 shot is only about an even chance, who wants to ignore preparation for the Caucus by skipping the straw poll and tempting fate? Plus if it remains the first in the nation, the Iowa Caucus can launch momentum for winning other early states like New Hampshire which is also significiant.
New Hampshire used to boast that no candidate had won the presidency without first winning New Hampshire. But in 1992, then-Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton placed second to former Massachusetts Sen. Paul Tsongas in the Democratic primary.
At the very least, not placing 1st or 2nd in New Hampshire is fighting the odds to become President. And with the straw polls influence on the Iowa Caucus, skipping either is a substantial risk. Even with the various primary and caucus venues jockeying for position this campaign season, the early states may not guarantee success but can you really afford to skip them? And what does that say about your campaign? Is it just politics and working the strategies, or is there a more profound implication that voters should take into consideration?
If campaign decisions are not just strategy for elections but a window on leadership skills, would you favor a candidate who accepts the challenge and successfully completes the task? Or are you comfortable with hide and seek tactics that suggest a personal goal outweighs a responsibility to the voting public? The vulnerabilities, real or perceived, may have been glimpsed by the public this weekend.
Here’s a little before and after on this year’s Iowa Straw Poll:
Iowa GOP expects bigger straw poll than ‘99
THOMAS BEAUMONT
REGISTER STAFF WRITER
July 19, 2007
Iowa Republican Party officials said today they expect turnout at the party’s presidential straw poll next month to draw more attendees than the last one eight years ago, despite planned no-shows by some of best-known candidates.
Chuck Laudner, executive director of the Republican Party of Iowa, said he is expecting more than 38,000 GOP activists to attend the Aug. 11 event on Iowa State University campus and more than 24,000 to cast a ballot for their preferred candidate.
The 1999 straw poll results are below:
Iowa GOP Straw Poll results
August 16, 1999
Gov. George W. Bush
7,418 31.3%
Steve Forbes
4,921 20.8%
Elizabeth Dole
3,410 14.3%
Gary Bauer
2,114 8.9 %
Pat Buchanan
1,719 7.3%
Lamar Alexander
1,428 6.0%
Alan Keyes
1,101 4.6%
Dan Quayle
916 3.9%
Sen. Orrin Hatch
558 2.4%
Sen. John McCain*
83 0.4%
Rep. John Kasich
9 0.0%
Sen. Bob Smith
8 0.0%
TOTAL VOTES 23,685 �
* McCain didn’t participate.
Some comparison numbers from straw poll and caucus is offered below.
STRAW POLL VS. CAUCUSES
Top 3 finishers in the Iowa GOP straw poll compared to Iowa caucuses results.
1999 Straw Poll
1. George W. Bush 7,418
2. Steve Forbes 4,921
3. Elizabeth Dole 3,410
2000 Iowa Caucuses
1. George W. Bush 35,948
2. Steve Forbes 26,744
3. Alan Keyes 12,496
1995 Straw Poll
1. Bob Dole 2,582
1. Phil Gramm 2,582
3. Pat Buchanan 1,922
1996 Iowa Caucuses
1. Bob Dole 25,378
2. Pat Buchanan 22,512
3. Lamar Alexander 17,003
1987 Straw Poll
1. Pat Robertson 1,293
2. Bob Dole 958
3. George H.W. Bush 864
1988 Iowa Caucuses
1. Bob Dole 40,661
2. Pat Robertson 26,761
3. George H.W. Bush 20,194
Source: Republican Party of Iowa
And of course, the results of this year’s straw poll:

Mitt Romney
4516
31.5%
Mike Huckabee
2587
18.1%
Sam Brownback
2192
15.3%
Tom Tancredo
1961
13.7%
Ron Paul
1305
9.1%
Tommy Thompson
1039
7.3%
Fred Thompson
203
1.4%
Rudy Giuliani
183
1.3%
Duncan Hunter
174
1.2%
John McCain
101
1.0%
John Cox
41
0.1%
14,302 Total Votes
26,000 Total Tickets Sold
The 1999 straw poll is claimed to have been the largest in its history. Those who say this year’s turnout is disappointing may be wrong. If you assume there should have been twice the number of voters and the missing half would have been spread 3/4 for the missing 3 candidates (or potential candidate) with another 1/4 spread among those competing, the results would have been interesting. It may not be far from what would have been reality. Another reason the other 3 campaigns should have been there. That could have put some questions to bed. And that may be exactly why they really missed the event.
Stanford Matthews
MoreWhat.com
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