Archive for the 'Brownback' Category

Cautious Clinton, Dangerous Obama and Hypocrite Edwards

Posted in Public Affairs, wordpress, Politics, campaign, election, Biden, McCain, GOP, Democrats, News Media, Clinton, obama, romney, Opinion, Edwards, giuliani, Brownback, Dodd, huckabee on August 18th, 2007 by Stanford Matthews

Obama stuck in a narrative not his own
August 18, 2007

Hillary Rodham Clinton is rigid, cautious and steely. Barack Obama is dangerously inexperienced. John Edwards is a narcissistic hypocrite. Joseph R. Biden Jr. can’t express a thought in less than 25 minutes. Christopher J. Dodd is making sense but nobody’s paying attention.

But, then again, Rudolph W. Giuliani is hot-tempered and not particularly solicitous of civil liberties. Mitt Romney is a flip-flopping opportunist. John McCain is a doomed defender of the Iraq war. Sam Brownback is a hopeless religious conservative. Mike Huckabee is too, except that he’s lost a lot of weight, has a wicked sense of humor and, because of his second-place finish in last week’s (utterly meaningless) Iowa straw poll, might not be the dead-man-walking everyone thought he was.

David Shribman is executive editor of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.

David Shribman has it all figured out. All the candidates are worthless. At first glance it may appear that way. But his initial observations, while entertaining, have a tendency to lean one way…..left.

DemsThe first candidate described by Shribman is Hillary Rodham Clinton, the Democratic poll leader who receives his least critical if not highest praise of all the candidates listed. Rigid, cautious and steely may be somewhat vague but not critical. Obama is dangerous, Edwards a hypocrite with Biden and Dodd shown as generally inept. Any guess on who Shribman favors but is concealing in ambiguous adjectives? Nice try on an attempt to appear objective….NOT.

GOPEvery description of the GOP field is derogatory with the possible exception of Huckabee. He is called a hopeless religious conservative and given a backhanded compliment on his performance in the Iowa Straw Poll. Less that 2nd place finish in a contest panned by many, Shribman calls him a ‘dead-man-walking.’

Shribman tries to be stealthy with his appraisal of Clinton to hide the favoritism. He bashes the remainder of the Democratic field and the entire GOP field focusing the remainder of the piece on what Barack Obama should do. All that from the Executive Editor of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette showing a left-leaning bias and not so cleverly hidden endorsement of Hillary Rodham Clinton. Who says the press is biased?

Stanford Matthews
MoreWhat.com

Poll: Clinton, Giuliani Lead US Political Party Nomination Races for President

Posted in Public Affairs, Bush, wordpress, Politics, campaign, election, McCain, GOP, Democrats, Gore, Tancredo, News Media, Clinton, thompson, obama, hillary, romney, Edwards, Gingrich, giuliani, Brownback, Bill Richardson, Dodd, huckabee on August 16th, 2007 by Stanford Matthews

By Michael Bowman
Washington
15 August 2007

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GiulianiA new poll of likely U.S. voters shows New York Senator Hillary Clinton maintaining her frontrunner status among Democratic voters in next year’s presidential race, with former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani leading the Republican field. VOA’s Michael Bowman reports from Washington.

The Quinnipiac University poll shows Senator Clinton with 36 percent backing among Democrats, up one percent from a survey in June, with strong support among women and working class voters. Illinois Senator Barack Obama is holding steady in second place, at 21 percent, and is favored among Democrats with college degrees.

Former Vice President Al Gore, who has stated he has no intention of running for office, polled third with 15 percent support, ahead of former North Carolina Senator John Edwards at nine percent.

Mrs. Clinton may lead the Democratic field, but the news is not all positive for the one-time first lady, according to the head of the Quinnipiac Polling Institute, Maurice Carroll.

“Trailing her is a big ‘Hillary hostility’ factor which does raise questions, feeds those doubts about [whether she] can win in November [in next year’s election],” he said. “Forty-eight to 43 percent, Americans tell the poll they have a favorable impression of her. But 43 is a big number, the negative side, and that is the highest of any of the candidates.”

Hillary Rodham ClintonMonths ago, some analysts predicted that Senator Obama, whose father was Kenyan, would eventually receive overwhelming backing from black and other minority voters. But the Quinnipiac poll shows no such trend to date, with Senator Clinton doing well among all racial and ethnic groups within the Democratic Party.

Among Republicans, Rudy Giuliani leads with 28 percent support, up one percent from June. Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney comes in second with 15 percent, followed by actor and former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson with 12 percent and Arizona Senator John McCain with 11 percent. Mr. Thompson has yet to formally announce his candidacy.

Carroll notes that Giuliani is pro-choice on abortion and favors legal rights for homosexual couples - positions that do not endear him with the socially-conservative base of the Republican Party. But he says the former mayor has one great strength that propels him to the top of the Republican field:

“It’s 9/11. Rudy Giuliani was mayor of New York City when the terrorists attacked and destroyed the World Trade Center. His performance then in rallying the city, reassuring the city - and to an extent the nation, earned him all sorts of plaudits and that is his big pitch. Of those who are for him, more than a third cited his performance after 9/11, his anti-terrorist credentials,” he said.

How would top Democratic and Republican contenders fare if the presidential election were held today? The Quinnipiac poll shows Hillary Clinton edging Rudy Giuliani 46 to 43 percent, and a draw between Giuliani and Barack Obama at 42 percent each. The poll did not pose a hypothetical match-up of Mitt Romney against a Democratic challenger.

Such polls provide only a snapshot of public opinion at the time they are conducted. The first contest of the presidential primary season is still months away, in January, and the general election is more than a year off.

Romney, Huckabee Get Boost From Iowa

Posted in Public Affairs, wordpress, Politics, campaign, election, GOP, Tancredo, News Media, romney, Brownback, huckabee on August 15th, 2007 by Stanford Matthews

By Jim Malone
Washington
13 August 2007

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Republican presidential contenders Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee are hoping for a political boost after finishing first and second in a straw poll or test vote on Saturday in Iowa. But as national correspondent Jim Malone reports from Washington, the battle for the Republican Party’s presidential nomination remains wide open.

Mitt RomneyFormer Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney was the big winner at the Iowa straw poll, capturing 31 percent of the vote and what he hopes will be political momentum for the next phase of the 2008 presidential campaign.

“Well, there is no question that it sends a message that America is ready for a change, and that change began in Iowa,” he said on NBC’s Today program. “I was delighted to do so well. I know everybody else is wishing they could be in my spot, but I am glad I have got it.”

Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee emerged from a crowded pack of Republican contenders to take second place in the Iowa event with 18 percent of the vote.

Huckabee told MSNBC television that his strong second place finish puts him in the top group of Republican candidates for the White House next year.

“You cannot win without middle America, which means that the Republicans have to keep shopping,” he said. “And that is why I think that my place [showing] there was such a significant one because it showed that there is really not only a hunger for a different candidate, but I think I am fitting the bill for those looking for an alternative.”

Romney and Huckabee benefited from the fact that some of their top rivals did not take part in the Iowa straw poll including former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, Arizona Senator John McCain and former Senator Fred Thompson of Tennessee. Thompson is expected to formally join the race in September.

At the moment, Giuliani continues to lead among Republicans in most national polls, but Romney is doing well in Iowa and New Hampshire, the two states that begin the presidential nomination selection process for both major political parties in January.

National surveys have also indicated that many Republican voters are not satisfied with the current group of candidates, and that social conservative voters in particular are looking for a true conservative in the tradition of former President Ronald Reagan.

Political experts say both Romney and Huckabee may have won some converts with their strong showings in Iowa.

“Mitt Romney has been a conservative at times in his career, and not a conservative at other times,” said John Fortier, an expert on presidential politics at the American Enterprise Institute and a guest on VOA’s Encounter program. “That is the great charge against him. He is trying to be that conservative candidate.”

But another Encounter guest, political analyst Stuart Rothenberg, says it may be a while before a clear frontrunner emerges in the battle for the Republican Party’s presidential nomination.

“The Republican race is one that is looking for a frontrunner and no one can seem to find one,” he said. “The Republicans have a problem because they just do not have someone who can energize conservatives, appeal to Democrats and swing [independent] voters, and who has a campaign that is put together now in a way to win the nomination.”

The results of the Iowa straw poll have no official bearing on the 2008 presidential selection process, but they were definitive for at least one contender.

Former Wisconsin Governor Tommy Thompson pulled out of the Republican race shortly after his poor showing in the Iowa contest.

Brownback Pleased (more like relieved)

Posted in Public Affairs, wordpress, Politics, campaign, election, GOP, Brownback on August 13th, 2007 by Stanford Matthews

It may be correct to say ’strong’ showing. But is would be more precise to say stronger than expected. Without a top three finish for Brownback, or just about anyone, it would signal the finish. So in campaign terms the description is understandable. It was just not real accurate. Huckabee’s is even better in describing results of his campaign at the Iowa Straw Poll.

Stanford Matthews
MoreWhat.com

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
August 11, 2007
Contact: John Rankin
515-221-1001, media@brownback.com

Brownback Pleased with Strong Showing in Ames

AMES, Iowa – U.S. Senator Sam Brownback, Republican candidate for president, today spoke to supporters at the conclusion of the Ames Straw Poll.

“Today we leave Ames with a ticket to the Iowa caucuses,” said Brownback. “Given that we were outspent by more than 10 to 1 and faced a multi-million dollar advertising blitz, we built a great foundation as we head into the caucuses.”

The Brownback campaign received 2,192 votes and spent approximately $325,000 on the Straw Poll.
###

Gambling with the Iowa Straw Poll

Posted in Public Affairs, wordpress, Politics, campaign, election, McCain, GOP, Tancredo, thompson, romney, Gingrich, giuliani, Brownback on August 13th, 2007 by Stanford Matthews

GOP candidates5
Giuliani and McCain announcing last June they would drop out of competition at the Iowa Straw Poll was mentioned in the last post here as avoiding a damaging downside. It was also described as a lack of confidence in their national poll rankings.

Giuliani, McCain snub Iowa straw poll
Michael Finnegan, Los Angeles Times
Thursday, June 7, 2007
(06-07) 04:00 PDT Manchester, N.H. — An Iowa straw poll that traditionally has served as an early benchmark in the Republican presidential nomination race lost much of its luster Wednesday, as first Rudy Giuliani and then John McCain decided not to compete in it.

campaign fundsThe article above indicated the possible setaback faced by Giulians as well as McCain by competing in the straw poll. Giuliani’s campaign said the straw poll was not important but they would show for the Iowa Caucus. The important thing is Giuliani and McCain saved several million dollars by not attending.

Trying to move the straw poll to insignificance by not showing up may work for Giuliani and McCain, but what does it say about their campaigns? Perhaps leading the national polls is also insignificant or a false indicator of strength.

In 1987, 1995 and 1999 the straw poll 1st or 2nd place candidate won the Iowa Caucus. Giuliani, McCain and Fred Thompson are betting there is less risk in skipping the straw poll than there is in defying history. Not only has first or second in the straw poll matched the winner of the Iowa Caucus, but the fate of Caucus winners and losers also has a dramatic implication.

The Iowa Caucus was rendered insignificant at least once in the past but the circumstances will not be matched in 2008. Scenarios like the one described at Wikipedia (below) may in part have influenced the decisions of the three Republicans to skip the straw poll.

The nadir of the caucuses was in 1992, when Iowa Senator Tom Harkin ran for the Democratic nomination. None of the other Democratic candidates chose to compete in Iowa, which minimized its importance in the nomination process. President Bush was unopposed on the Republican side, and the media completely ignored the state.

Another excerpt from Wiki puts the importance of the Iowa Caucus in perspective for the 2008 campaign.

While they have been a financial boon to the state, the political value of the Iowa caucuses has gone up and down over the years. In 1988, for example, the candidates who eventually won the nominations of both parties came in third in Iowa. In elections without a sitting President or Vice President, the Iowa winner only goes on to the nomination about half the time.

While a near 50/50 shot is only about an even chance, who wants to ignore preparation for the Caucus by skipping the straw poll and tempting fate? Plus if it remains the first in the nation, the Iowa Caucus can launch momentum for winning other early states like New Hampshire which is also significiant.

New Hampshire used to boast that no candidate had won the presidency without first winning New Hampshire. But in 1992, then-Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton placed second to former Massachusetts Sen. Paul Tsongas in the Democratic primary.

the gambleAt the very least, not placing 1st or 2nd in New Hampshire is fighting the odds to become President. And with the straw polls influence on the Iowa Caucus, skipping either is a substantial risk. Even with the various primary and caucus venues jockeying for position this campaign season, the early states may not guarantee success but can you really afford to skip them? And what does that say about your campaign? Is it just politics and working the strategies, or is there a more profound implication that voters should take into consideration?

If campaign decisions are not just strategy for elections but a window on leadership skills, would you favor a candidate who accepts the challenge and successfully completes the task? Or are you comfortable with hide and seek tactics that suggest a personal goal outweighs a responsibility to the voting public? The vulnerabilities, real or perceived, may have been glimpsed by the public this weekend.

Here’s a little before and after on this year’s Iowa Straw Poll:

Iowa GOP expects bigger straw poll than ‘99
THOMAS BEAUMONT
REGISTER STAFF WRITER
July 19, 2007
Iowa Republican Party officials said today they expect turnout at the party’s presidential straw poll next month to draw more attendees than the last one eight years ago, despite planned no-shows by some of best-known candidates.

Chuck Laudner, executive director of the Republican Party of Iowa, said he is expecting more than 38,000 GOP activists to attend the Aug. 11 event on Iowa State University campus and more than 24,000 to cast a ballot for their preferred candidate.

The 1999 straw poll results are below:

Iowa GOP Straw Poll results
August 16, 1999

Gov. George W. Bush
7,418 31.3%
Steve Forbes
4,921 20.8%
Elizabeth Dole
3,410 14.3%
Gary Bauer
2,114 8.9 %
Pat Buchanan
1,719 7.3%
Lamar Alexander
1,428 6.0%
Alan Keyes
1,101 4.6%
Dan Quayle
916 3.9%
Sen. Orrin Hatch
558 2.4%
Sen. John McCain*
83 0.4%
Rep. John Kasich
9 0.0%
Sen. Bob Smith
8 0.0%

TOTAL VOTES 23,685 �

* McCain didn’t participate.

Some comparison numbers from straw poll and caucus is offered below.

STRAW POLL VS. CAUCUSES
Top 3 finishers in the Iowa GOP straw poll compared to Iowa caucuses results.

1999 Straw Poll
1. George W. Bush 7,418
2. Steve Forbes 4,921
3. Elizabeth Dole 3,410

2000 Iowa Caucuses
1. George W. Bush 35,948
2. Steve Forbes 26,744
3. Alan Keyes 12,496

1995 Straw Poll
1. Bob Dole 2,582
1. Phil Gramm 2,582
3. Pat Buchanan 1,922

1996 Iowa Caucuses
1. Bob Dole 25,378
2. Pat Buchanan 22,512
3. Lamar Alexander 17,003

1987 Straw Poll
1. Pat Robertson 1,293
2. Bob Dole 958
3. George H.W. Bush 864

1988 Iowa Caucuses
1. Bob Dole 40,661
2. Pat Robertson 26,761
3. George H.W. Bush 20,194

Source: Republican Party of Iowa

And of course, the results of this year’s straw poll:

Mitt Romney

Mitt Romney
4516
31.5%

Mike Huckabee
2587
18.1%

Sam Brownback
2192
15.3%

Tom Tancredo
1961
13.7%

Ron Paul
1305
9.1%

Tommy Thompson
1039
7.3%

Fred Thompson
203
1.4%

Rudy Giuliani
183
1.3%

Duncan Hunter
174
1.2%

John McCain
101
1.0%

John Cox
41
0.1%

14,302 Total Votes
26,000 Total Tickets Sold

ThinkingThe 1999 straw poll is claimed to have been the largest in its history. Those who say this year’s turnout is disappointing may be wrong. If you assume there should have been twice the number of voters and the missing half would have been spread 3/4 for the missing 3 candidates (or potential candidate) with another 1/4 spread among those competing, the results would have been interesting. It may not be far from what would have been reality. Another reason the other 3 campaigns should have been there. That could have put some questions to bed. And that may be exactly why they really missed the event.

Stanford Matthews
MoreWhat.com

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Iowa Straw Poll Election Results

Posted in Announcement, wordpress, campaign, election, McCain, GOP, Tancredo, thompson, romney, Gingrich, giuliani, Brownback on August 12th, 2007 by Stanford Matthews

Iowa Straw Poll Results ( H/T to Cyclone Conservatives )

Mitt Romney Wins Ames Straw Poll

Results are certified by State Auditor David Vaudt and Chairman Ray Hoffmann:

Mitt Romney
4516
31.5%

Mike Huckabee
2587
18.1%

Sam Brownback
2192
15.3%

Tom Tancredo
1961
13.7%

Ron Paul
1305
9.1%

Tommy Thompson
1039
7.3%

Fred Thompson
203
1.4%

Rudy Giuliani
183
1.3%

Duncan Hunter
174
1.2%

John McCain
101
1.0%

John Cox
41
0.1%

14,302 Total Votes
26,000 Total Tickets Sold

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GOP Candidates Debate in Iowa

Posted in Public Affairs, wordpress, Politics, campaign, election, McCain, GOP, Tancredo, thompson, romney, giuliani, Brownback on August 6th, 2007 by Stanford Matthews

Republican Presidential Hopefuls Hold Debate in Iowa
By Michael Bowman
Washington
05 August 2007

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All but one Republican Party presidential candidate is advocating continued U.S. military operations in Iraq, but most have expressed reservations about unilateral U.S. military action against major terrorist targets in Pakistan. VOA’s Michael Bowman reports, the nine declared presidential contenders took part in a televised debate in Iowa, the first state to hold a contest in next year’s primary election season.

GOP candidates

The wide-ranging 90-minute debate focused on contentious social issues like abortion, along with health care reform, tax policy, and foreign affairs.

When it came to Iraq, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani expressed the consensus view among Republican contenders that it would be a mistake to withdraw U.S. forces at this point.

“We should seek a victory in Iraq, in Baghdad,” Giuliani said. “This [battle for Iraq] is part of an overall war against us by the terrorists. It is a battle in that war. America should win that battle.”

Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee also argued against a rapid pullout of U.S. forces from Iraq, but said nations like Saudi Arabia must play a more constructive role in promoting peace in Iraq, and the United States must end its dependence on foreign oil. Kansas Senator Sam Brownback said Iraq’s leaders must show greater resolve in tackling thorny political issues.

Only one debate participant, Texas Congressman Ron Paul, had a radically different proposal for U.S. troops in Iraq.

“Just come home. We just marched in [to Iraq]. We can just come home,” Paul said. “We went in there illegally, we did not declare war. It is lasting way too long. We are losing this one, we should not be there.”

Arizona Senator John McCain urged patience and resolve when it comes to Iraq, despite setbacks he blamed on the Bush administration’s handling of the war.

“All of us feel frustration, sometimes anger and sorrow over what has happened in this war,” said McCain. “It was very badly mismanaged for nearly the first four years. We do now have a strategy that is succeeding.”

Democratic presidential candidates have taken part in similar events. One Democratic contender, Illinois Senator Barack Obama, recently made headlines when he suggested he would act unilaterally to strike terrorist targets in Pakistan - a statement that has been condemned by the government of President Pervez Musharraf.

Obama also suggested he would be open to meeting with some of America’s fiercest critics on the world stage, including Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez.

At the Republican presidential debate, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney had this to say:

“I think Barack Obama is confused as to who are our friends and who are our enemies. We do not go out and say to a nation which is working with us [Pakistan] that we intend to go in there and bring a unilateral attack,” he said.

But Rudy Giuliani said unilateral action in Pakistan cannot be ruled out.

“I would take that option if I thought there was no other way to crush al-Qaida, no other way to crush the Taleban, and no other way to capture [Osama] bin Laden,” he said.

Most Republican presidential candidates expressed support for continued U.S. efforts to promote democracy around the world, although some suggested the United States should lead by example. Some faulted the Bush administration for pressing for elections in war-town areas before peace, rule of law, and economic progress have been achieved.

Not taking part in the debate was actor and former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson, who has been raising funds for a presumed presidential bid, but who has yet to formally declare his candidacy. Polls in Iowa show no clear frontrunner in either the Republican or Democratic presidential field.

Brownback, Kucinich and Tier Limits

Posted in Public Affairs, wordpress, Politics, campaign, election, McCain, GOP, Democrats, Tancredo, Clinton, thompson, romney, giuliani, Brownback on July 27th, 2007 by Stanford Matthews

So what is the lower tier of candidates doing to propel themselves to the top tier? You don’t really expect any of them to approach the current poll leaders, do you? But then, what’s the point of being in a campaign if not to win? Some candidates in the past have entered a Presidential race to do nothing more than bring attention to the issues, improve their standing in a current elected office, improve name recognition for a future run or just to muddy up the place. Most voters may support a lower tier candidate because they strongly support an issue only a lower tier candidate can afford to promote. Some are so dissatisfied with the top tier and typical choices that the lower tier support is like a protest vote.

You will not get anything from lower tier candidates but the same victory predictions or aspirations displayed by the top tier. The money to win may not be there and the strategy and tactics do not reflect the same strength of the upper tier campaigns. And there is no shortage of trading barbs or wild west tactics within the ranks of those barely visible in the polls.

BrownbackSenator Sam Brownback has decided the straw poll in Iowa is THE target. With Giuliani, McCain and Thompson not a factor, a second place finish is not outside the realm of possibilities for the Senator. But his automated ‘robo-call’ methods to attack his opponents does not come without a downside. Some might suggest this tactic should be part of the national do not call list. If any voter is annoyed by unsolicited calls, getting one from an automated system on any subject cannot be any more pleasing than the traditional human counterpart. And the complaints from competing campaigns, the subjects of the calls, may cause potential voters to challenge the validity of the claims. But then we’ll know how well this worked sometime in August.

Pure Horserace: Brownback’s Bold Move

July 26, 2007(CBS) When Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback entered the race for the Republican presidential nomination, he wasn’t placed in the top tier, but was expected to still be a factor, especially when it came down to attracting the evangelical Christian voters that comprise a large part of the GOP voting base. But until this point, Brownback has largely been a non-entity in the contest, his fund raising and poll numbers putting him at the bottom of the field.

Finding anything reasonable to discuss about Mike Gravel’s campaign is difficult. Withdrawing from public life, experiencing two bankruptcies, entering the Pentagon Papers into the public record and offering a campaign reminiscent of the sixties’ counterculture does not lend itself to the current campaign. This lower tier attempt will be lucky to net the Gravel campaign a footnote in the 2008 elections.

KucinichRegardless of your politics, you gotta love the Kucinich campaign. If you’re on the left, he speaks to long standing and underlying positions of the Democratic party. Peace, programs and solving problems with government intervention. If you’re on the right, he helps the GOP by harassing other Democratic candidates.

Democrat Kucinich: long shot who keeps on running

Tue Jul 24, 2007 1:47PM EDT
By Andrea Hopkins
COLUMBUS, Ohio (Reuters) - Democratic presidential hopeful Dennis Kucinich has just 1 percent support in the polls, six candidates ahead of him and next to no chance of becoming U.S. president. But don’t tell him that.

Party AnimalsWhile this post was presented in light of the recent Democratic party debate via CNN/YouTube, the lower tier of the GOP presents some interesting choices as well. Perhaps one undisclosed purpose by lower tier candidates from both major parties is a chance at a spot on the ticket as a running mate. While John Cox, Ron Paul and Tommy Thompson are very unlikely to pose any threat in a run for the 2008 nomination, the lower tier of GOP candidates has some contenders with more than no chance at all. Brownback, Huckabee, Hunter and Tancredo are established politicians but their contribution to the race may only serve to slow the process of finding a breakout candidate.

The continuing postponements to announce from the Fred Thompson campaign together with this week’s campaign staff changes and rumors of friction certainly do nothing to improve the former Senator’s standing with potential voters or donors.

Thinking....While Giuliani remains on top the GOP national poll numbers and has actually started to do some campaigning, the fact remains his appeal to the typical conservative base is in question. While Romney continues to strengthen his poll numbers and rankings in the early states, his fund raising has slowed, his spending is up and appears to have relaxed campaigning with the exception of attacking the Dems. And the McCain campaign still appears to be stalled. Right at this moment, the claims by observers and Democrats suggesting GOP fund raising and voter apathy as serious problems may have some credibility. But the recent flaw in Clinton’s armor again suggests its a long campaign season and nothing has yet been decided……nothing.

Stanford Matthews
MoreWhat.com

Brownback’s Greenbacks

Posted in Public Affairs, Money Matters, wordpress, Politics, campaign, election, Brownback on July 17th, 2007 by Stanford Matthews

Sen Sam BrownbackNot like a comparison is needed. But if you think about the commentary on Sen McCain’s floundering campaign finances as a problem, Brownback is just one primary away from withdrawing. Not like this is any earth shattering news, but in a painfully long campaign season this kind of funding cannot even support a staff which has been reported as being developed in SC lately. Must be entirely volunteers since you cannot fund a serious national campaign on one million or so per quarter.

Stanford Matthews
MoreWhat.com

Brownback raises nearly $1.5 million in presidential bid

Story by The Associated Press
9:29 a.m. Tuesday, July 3, 2007

Brownback’s Republican competitors are way out in front on campaign donations.

Arizona Senator John McCain raised $11.2 million over the past three months. Larger amounts are expected to be reported by Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani.

Obama Reported as 2nd Qtr Champ

Posted in Money Matters, wordpress, campaign, election, McCain, Clinton, thompson, obama, romney, Edwards, giuliani, Brownback, Bill Richardson on July 2nd, 2007 by Stanford Matthews

Obama Raises $32.5 MillionThe filing deadline for 2nd quarter campaign finance reports is July 15th. Already there is the pre-deadline chatter about who raised what and candidate reactions or lack of them. One headline said the Democratic candidates were quiet about their 2nd quarter numbers. A quick visit to their campaign sites found Obama’s news section referring to a report that his campaign raised $32.5 million through the small donor strategy. Without analyzing, debating or arguing the details, if that is accurate one must say that Barack Obama’s campaign turned in a stellar fund raising performance for quarter two.

The Clinton website had no such announcement or news item. The reasons for that are unknown but one has to imagine if her money machine had done better the news would be out there. Richardson had no announcement or news item but a headline indicates he came in fourth in fund raising. Coming in fourth in a three person race speaks for itself. But Richardson can take heart that Edwards did report results on his website and $9 million compared to Richardson’s $7 million adjusts the relative strength of the lower tier money game.

Mitt RomneyThe first quarter results had Mitt Romney out front which he won’t be this time according to reports. His $23 million numbers last quarter included a loan of about $3 million so the net raised is more like $20 million and this quarter’s estimate is just short of that meaning a flat trend line. McCain will miss his $10 million goal which puts him in the Edwards and Richardson club. There’s not much out there on Giuliani’s 2nd quarter but his first was around $15 million and unless he surprises like Obama this quarter his numbers will likely be about the same as quarter one.

If Obama’s large cash pile for quarter two is truly from small donors does that mean deep pocket contributors are not interested? If he in fact relied on small donors this time around can he expect a similar result for quarter three? At an average of 50 bucks per donation and 250000 donors would raise 12 1/2 million. He raised $32.5 million so the breakdown would be interesting to see. A wild guess would suggest a mixed bag of large and small donors.

Party AnimalsIt is no surprise that Edwards, McCain and Richardson are in the single digit millions category. As predicted here before, those three won’t make it to the conventions. Similarly, it is only a matter of time before the Brownbacks, Dodds and other lower tier candidates fall off the 2008 landscape. It is still a battle for supremacy between Clinton and Obama on the left and Thompson, Romney and Giuliani on the right. Nothing else really matters and is only the sideshow in this circus.

Stanford Matthews
MoreWhat.com

47% View Clinton as Politically Liberal

Posted in Public Affairs, wordpress, Politics, campaign, election, McCain, GOP, Democrats, Gore, Tancredo, Clinton, thompson, obama, hillary, romney, Edwards, Gingrich, giuliani, Brownback, Bill Richardson, Dodd on July 1st, 2007 by Stanford Matthews

liberalsFriday, June 29, 2007
New York Senator Hillary Clinton, the front runner for the Democratic Presidential nomination is viewed as politically liberal by 47% of American voters. While that’s down from 55% a month ago, it’s still higher than the percentage of voters who see her major opponents as politically liberal. Just 42% say that former North Carolina Senator John Edwards is politically liberal while 41% say that label applies to Illinois Senator Barack Obama.

from MoreWhat.com:
votersThis is strange enough but the entire report at Rasmussen rates how conservatives, ‘moderates’ and liberals view the Queen of Cringe in terms of political leanings. It would be more accurate to rank her as not conservative, moderate or liberal. HRC is not concerned with the agenda of any political persuasion. She is only concerned about HRC. To say whatever is deemed necessary to enter the White House is it. There is no other agenda. Get in the White House and try to rule the planet HRC style.

For 2008, the GOP in Congress is probably going to lose some more members in light of events since the midterms. The Democratic majority has been so pitiful since the midterms they will lose some members also. Net effect, to early to tell who will be the majority next time.

For President, your choices on the Dems side are too risky. No explanation should be necessary in terms of HRC. The personal and political history are enough of a reason for an informed voter to reject Hillary Rodham Clinton. While Barack Obama has some staunch support from a wide audience it is probable he will not be able to win enough key states to win the nomination. Plus it is his first time out and coupled with the limited experience chances are slim. Edwards and Richardon will suffer from fund raising difficulties indicating their limited support. Edwards will do better than Richardson in the first primary or two. But they will both fail.

So your only choice is on the GOP side of the world. McCain’s bid is essentially over though he denies it and never really got started after a pathetic open with little attention paid to fund raising. Alienating deep pocket contributors from the past and taking hard stands on Iraq and illegal immigration were the stake in the heart. Giuliani will likewise succumb to liberal attitudes and history shortcomings after an intense attempt to rebuild his image and look Presidential. Brownback and others will go the way of most 2nd tier candidates and the final contest will be between Fred Thompson and Mitt Romney. If Thompson’s strategy does not betray him he may have an edge over Romney. If the success of his strategy does not launch him to the stars after the annoying delays of an announcement, if it ever comes, Romney may have won enough from early spending, continued fund raising success and victories in the early states to make it a convention fight for the nomination.

Mitt RomneyFred Thompson

Barring a massive scandal or two on either side of the Presidential race for 2008, Romney or Thompson will likely face Clinton or Obama in the election. The Dems will lose again and begin the mourning and another allegation of voting fraud and a stolen election. The GOP victor will face a first term with another slim Democratic majority in Congress. But the GOP members of Congress will have seen the error of their party ways and provide even more difficulties for the Dems and retake the majority in the midterms following the 2008 election.

Go ahead, suggest that this is not a probable outcome over the next few years.

Stanford Matthews
MoreWhat.com

Rivals race to catch Romney money machine

Posted in wordpress, Politics, campaign, election, McCain, romney, giuliani, Brownback on June 25th, 2007 by Stanford Matthews

Mitt RomneyAs pointed out in several other posts on this blog, the money game is a detriment to the McCain and Edwards’ campaigns and possibly less of a problem for Giuliani as his poll numbers help him right now. As the season progresses that may not be enough for Giuliani. His campaign hopes to stay close to Romney’s 2nd quarter numbers. While Romney may break Bush’s record from the 2nd quarter of 1999. Bush raised $37 million through the 2nd quarter and Romney has 23 from the first and only needs $14 million to tie. If his campaign bests the Bush record from 99 or exceeds it the psychological edge plus the ability to pressure opponents with campaign spending through the early primary states where he leads could spell the end for a campaign competitor or two.

Stanford Matthews
MoreWhat.com

Rivals race to catch Romney money machine

campaign fund raisingBy: Jonathan Martin
Jun 23, 2007 09:00 AM EST
John McCain, Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani
Mitt Romney is expected to best his GOP rivals in the race for cash and could surpass an important Bush benchmark.

As the second quarter fundraising deadline approaches, expect one thing: Mitt Romney is probably going to top the record-setting cash haul that George W. Bush racked up in the first half of 1999.

Romney Objects to Campaign Attacks

Posted in wordpress, campaign, election, McCain, GOP, Tancredo, thompson, romney, Edwards, Gingrich, giuliani, Brownback, Bill Richardson on June 24th, 2007 by Stanford Matthews

Mitt RomneyThree of Mitt Romney’s competitors for the 2008 GOP Presidential nomination have in some way apologized for their campaign personnel or themselves for attacking the Mormon faith. Romney seems to have played the unfortunate comments or actions down until now. Today he indicated one’s faith should not be part of the campaign discussion while it appears that at least some people in the other campaign camps seized the opportunity to use it as a negative campaign tool.

Giuliani’s campaign troubles will come from his liberal social positions like marriage and abortion. McCain’s campaign troubles will come from his positions on Iraq and immigration. McCain has the additional problem of fund raising as does one of his Democratic rivals, John Edwards. With Fred Thompson laying in the weeds attracting some support in the polls without campaigning, the remainder of the GOP field including Romney may view this as the largest challenge if and when Thompson announces.

ThinkingThe attraction to using the cheap shot about Romney’s faith may be signs of panic from the Giuliani, McCain and Brownback camps. Mitt Romney has mostly stayed on message and only recently made any real notice of the religion issue. One can hardly blame him for finally expressing his own comments as if to say enough already.

Another poll was out today from Gallup claiming a huge rise in the popularity and numbers of Democrat versus GOP candidates. After reviewing the polls of the last few months it is difficult to believe the Dems would have been able to reverse the trends since the campaign season began. Even the polls regardless of source year to date were more of a conversation piece than anything to take seriously this early on. The fantasy scenarios to which polling subjects were expected to respond suggest the pollsters were looking to boost the numbers for various candidates in order to increase demand for the polling data. In other words, the validity of polls may be more suspect than typical.

From this blog again comes the prediction that based on limited support and fund raising capacity, the McCain and Edwards campaigns will continue to fade and become the first top tier candidates to withdraw. The earliest indications to lead to that conclusion was the refusal of Giuliani and McCain to compete in the Iowa straw poll. Signs of Romney strength in the early states may show their reluctance to spend limited funds against a stronger opponent with a much larger war chest.

Stanford Matthews
MoreWhat.com

Romney Objects to Campaign Attacks

By BROCK VERGAKIS
Associated Press Writer
SALT LAKE CITY (AP) — Mitt Romney said Saturday that criticism of his Mormon religion by rival GOP presidential campaigns is happening too frequently.

“Clearly, any derogatory comments about anyone’s faith - those comments are troubling. The fact they keep on coming up is even more troubling,” Romney said during a fundraising trip in the home state of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints.

Romney Aide Takes Leave Amid Probes

Posted in wordpress, campaign, McCain, thompson, romney, Gingrich, giuliani, Brownback, Bill Richardson on June 23rd, 2007 by Stanford Matthews

Mitt RomneyThis story has been out for a few days at least and shows no signs of being abandoned by the press. It may be there insatiable appetite for cheap news that last forever and costs nothing. Then again, they may be thinking this is the first story that could stand to be a self-inflicted wound for the Romney campaign. It comes nowhere near the meltdown proportions of Howard Dean’s primal screaming session in ‘04′ but it could be the first campaign flaw. Unless you count the one where the big fund raiser in Utah is the subject of multiple law suits.

Why would anyone with a brain in their head do something like that alleged in the story? If the press is on your tail it should be no surprise if you are part of a national political campaign. News people and others in the media have a tendency to follow the stories even if the outcomes are not that impressive. The folks at the Romney campaign should be having a few meetings they may have missed at the beginning. The ones that define what is expected and vet the members of the campaign to avoid these situations. If someone dropped the ball about these matters it will do more damage to a campaign than the actual news reports like the one here.

Stanford Matthews
MoreWhat.com

Romney Aide Takes Leave Amid Probes

Saturday June 23, 2007 3:01 AM
By GLEN JOHNSON
Associated Press Writer

BOSTON (AP) - An ever-present aide to Republican presidential contender Mitt Romney took a leave of absence Friday after he became the subject of investigations in two states for allegedly impersonating a law enforcement officer. His attorney denied the charges.

McCain Campaign Apologizes to Romney

Posted in wordpress, campaign, election, McCain, thompson, romney, Gingrich, giuliani, Brownback, Bill Richardson on June 23rd, 2007 by Stanford Matthews

Mitt RomneyQuite the long wait for an apology but then doesn’t this sort of thing happen during political campaigns? Does Mitt Romney really care what someone thinks about his faith? Maybe the McCain volunteer should apologize to all Mormons or is an apology really needed at all? Some will find it distasteful and others may think it much ado about nothing.

One reason if may be thought of as much ado about nothing relates to information beginning to accumulate about fund raising of both McCain and Edwards. Not only are they weaker candidates in their respective grouping, they seem to be the only ones having difficulty raising funds. McCain may have damaged relationships with big wallets in defense contracting while Edwards funding problems are not so clear. Who will be the first casualty of this exceptionally long campaign season and will it happen before the first primary?

Stanford Matthews
MoreWhat.com

McCain Campaign Apologizes to Romney

Saturday June 23, 2007 5:16 AM
By AMY LORENTZEN
Associated Press Writer

DES MOINES, Iowa (AP) - John McCain’s presidential campaign has apologized to Republican rival Mitt Romney for comments about the Mormon church allegedly made by a volunteer earlier this year.
A participant at the meeting said Workman questioned whether Mormons were Christians, and he referenced an article alleging that the Mormon church supports the Islamic militant group Hamas. The participant talked to The Associated Press on Friday on condition of anonymity because he is involved in Iowa politics and wanted to protect his identity.