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By Michael Bowman
Washington
15 August 2007

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A new poll of likely U.S. voters shows New York Senator Hillary Clinton maintaining her frontrunner status among Democratic voters in next year’s presidential race, with former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani leading the Republican field. VOA’s Michael Bowman reports from Washington.

The Quinnipiac University poll shows Senator Clinton with 36 percent backing among Democrats, up one percent from a survey in June, with strong support among women and working class voters. Illinois Senator Barack Obama is holding steady in second place, at 21 percent, and is favored among Democrats with college degrees.

Former Vice President Al Gore, who has stated he has no intention of running for office, polled third with 15 percent support, ahead of former North Carolina Senator John Edwards at nine percent.

Mrs. Clinton may lead the Democratic field, but the news is not all positive for the one-time first lady, according to the head of the Quinnipiac Polling Institute, Maurice Carroll.

“Trailing her is a big ‘Hillary hostility’ factor which does raise questions, feeds those doubts about [whether she] can win in November [in next year’s election],” he said. “Forty-eight to 43 percent, Americans tell the poll they have a favorable impression of her. But 43 is a big number, the negative side, and that is the highest of any of the candidates.”

Months ago, some analysts predicted that Senator Obama, whose father was Kenyan, would eventually receive overwhelming backing from black and other minority voters. But the Quinnipiac poll shows no such trend to date, with Senator Clinton doing well among all racial and ethnic groups within the Democratic Party.

Among Republicans, Rudy Giuliani leads with 28 percent support, up one percent from June. Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney comes in second with 15 percent, followed by actor and former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson with 12 percent and Arizona Senator John McCain with 11 percent. Mr. Thompson has yet to formally announce his candidacy.

Carroll notes that Giuliani is pro-choice on abortion and favors legal rights for homosexual couples - positions that do not endear him with the socially-conservative base of the Republican Party. But he says the former mayor has one great strength that propels him to the top of the Republican field:

“It’s 9/11. Rudy Giuliani was mayor of New York City when the terrorists attacked and destroyed the World Trade Center. His performance then in rallying the city, reassuring the city - and to an extent the nation, earned him all sorts of plaudits and that is his big pitch. Of those who are for him, more than a third cited his performance after 9/11, his anti-terrorist credentials,” he said.

How would top Democratic and Republican contenders fare if the presidential election were held today? The Quinnipiac poll shows Hillary Clinton edging Rudy Giuliani 46 to 43 percent, and a draw between Giuliani and Barack Obama at 42 percent each. The poll did not pose a hypothetical match-up of Mitt Romney against a Democratic challenger.

Such polls provide only a snapshot of public opinion at the time they are conducted. The first contest of the presidential primary season is still months away, in January, and the general election is more than a year off.

crossposted at:
Maggie’s Notebook | Conservative Blog

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Conservative Thoughts

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Rasmussen Reports for August 14th has the Dems with Clinton 40%, Obama 24%, Edwards 16% and Richardson at 4%. The GOP side is Giuliani 25%, Thompson 21%, Romney 15%, McCain 10% and Huckabee 4%.

With the GOP it was not that long ago that Fred Thompson’s numbers were several points higher, McCain was in third and Giuliani was about the same as now. While Huckabee has received a boost at the Iowa Straw Poll, Romney has been in double digits nationally for some time and has settled in the mid-teens even before Iowa. It looks like Giuliani is holding, Thompson and McCain have lost some strength and Romney plus Huckabee have enjoyed the most improvement from their work. You can still look at polls and scratch your head due to the occasional crazy variations between pollsters or inexplicable changes over short periods of time.

The Dems have the Queen of Cringe not ready to give up much of her lead. Over the past month with the three events attended by Democratic party candidates, Hillary Rodham Clinton received more criticism than one would expect from a liberal leader. Her fondness of lobbyist money and characterizing the practice as acceptable when challenged at the last YearlyKos drew a negative vocal response from the crowd. Locking up her White House docs this week until after the 2008 contest was met with suspicion as well. The upside to a long campaign season is voters may have enough time to view all the baggage she would bring to America’s top job. Her numbers may in fact be slightly lower than in the past.

Obama has fallen in recent weeks while peacenik, poverty tour, let my wife do the work, multimillionaire Edwards seems to be enjoying a bit of an upward bump. He may in fact be taking numbers from Clinton and Obama. The only noticeable change is less John and more Elizabeth. But these are only poll numbers with limited value in analyzing the 2008 race.

The left side of the spectrum appears to have been quiet or at least not as vocal on items related to Iraq. With the exception of the heat Obama took over his foreign policy statements, the surrender strategy has subsided somewhat. Another indication of improved conditions related to the war effort. No conclusions are being drawn here, it is just an observation.

Giuliani’s lead with Republicans has not been negatively affected by his stand on social issues. That may be explained by his ability thus far to avoid any significant discussion on the subjects. Leaning pro-choice, gay marriage and anti-gun has been softened by his campaign but may be seriously challenged later this fall. Thompson’s current plan to announce is for Nashville on or after Labor Day. Which direction his numbers will go when he actually does something is anyone’s guess. You might think Romney was leading the pack as one of his staffers suggested earlier with all the interrogations to which he has been subjected. It may be better to wear out the media on their assaults before the campaigns get serious. If Thompson actually enters the race in September the media focus will at least for a time be on him. That may be a benefit for the others since he will be under the microscope if and when he announces. The bet here is their will be one more delay and more reports that Gingrich is still thinking about it.

With Congress on vacation, candidates currently holding office are free to do more campaigning. Not like voting in the Senate has interfered with their plans before with all the ‘not voting’ tallies they generated. After the Iowa Straw Poll, those attending have stepped up work on the trail also. Interested voters can take a dog days of summer break until things heat up this fall or some candidates make headlines before then. Most likely any headlines would only reflect reports not flattering to any campaign.

Stanford Matthews
MoreWhat.com

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Giuliani and McCain announcing last June they would drop out of competition at the Iowa Straw Poll was mentioned in the last post here as avoiding a damaging downside. It was also described as a lack of confidence in their national poll rankings.

Giuliani, McCain snub Iowa straw poll
Michael Finnegan, Los Angeles Times
Thursday, June 7, 2007
(06-07) 04:00 PDT Manchester, N.H. — An Iowa straw poll that traditionally has served as an early benchmark in the Republican presidential nomination race lost much of its luster Wednesday, as first Rudy Giuliani and then John McCain decided not to compete in it.

The article above indicated the possible setaback faced by Giulians as well as McCain by competing in the straw poll. Giuliani’s campaign said the straw poll was not important but they would show for the Iowa Caucus. The important thing is Giuliani and McCain saved several million dollars by not attending.

Trying to move the straw poll to insignificance by not showing up may work for Giuliani and McCain, but what does it say about their campaigns? Perhaps leading the national polls is also insignificant or a false indicator of strength.

In 1987, 1995 and 1999 the straw poll 1st or 2nd place candidate won the Iowa Caucus. Giuliani, McCain and Fred Thompson are betting there is less risk in skipping the straw poll than there is in defying history. Not only has first or second in the straw poll matched the winner of the Iowa Caucus, but the fate of Caucus winners and losers also has a dramatic implication.

The Iowa Caucus was rendered insignificant at least once in the past but the circumstances will not be matched in 2008. Scenarios like the one described at Wikipedia (below) may in part have influenced the decisions of the three Republicans to skip the straw poll.

The nadir of the caucuses was in 1992, when Iowa Senator Tom Harkin ran for the Democratic nomination. None of the other Democratic candidates chose to compete in Iowa, which minimized its importance in the nomination process. President Bush was unopposed on the Republican side, and the media completely ignored the state.

Another excerpt from Wiki puts the importance of the Iowa Caucus in perspective for the 2008 campaign.

While they have been a financial boon to the state, the political value of the Iowa caucuses has gone up and down over the years. In 1988, for example, the candidates who eventually won the nominations of both parties came in third in Iowa. In elections without a sitting President or Vice President, the Iowa winner only goes on to the nomination about half the time.

While a near 50/50 shot is only about an even chance, who wants to ignore preparation for the Caucus by skipping the straw poll and tempting fate? Plus if it remains the first in the nation, the Iowa Caucus can launch momentum for winning other early states like New Hampshire which is also significiant.

New Hampshire used to boast that no candidate had won the presidency without first winning New Hampshire. But in 1992, then-Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton placed second to former Massachusetts Sen. Paul Tsongas in the Democratic primary.

At the very least, not placing 1st or 2nd in New Hampshire is fighting the odds to become President. And with the straw polls influence on the Iowa Caucus, skipping either is a substantial risk. Even with the various primary and caucus venues jockeying for position this campaign season, the early states may not guarantee success but can you really afford to skip them? And what does that say about your campaign? Is it just politics and working the strategies, or is there a more profound implication that voters should take into consideration?

If campaign decisions are not just strategy for elections but a window on leadership skills, would you favor a candidate who accepts the challenge and successfully completes the task? Or are you comfortable with hide and seek tactics that suggest a personal goal outweighs a responsibility to the voting public? The vulnerabilities, real or perceived, may have been glimpsed by the public this weekend.

Here’s a little before and after on this year’s Iowa Straw Poll:

Iowa GOP expects bigger straw poll than ‘99
THOMAS BEAUMONT
REGISTER STAFF WRITER
July 19, 2007
Iowa Republican Party officials said today they expect turnout at the party’s presidential straw poll next month to draw more attendees than the last one eight years ago, despite planned no-shows by some of best-known candidates.

Chuck Laudner, executive director of the Republican Party of Iowa, said he is expecting more than 38,000 GOP activists to attend the Aug. 11 event on Iowa State University campus and more than 24,000 to cast a ballot for their preferred candidate.

The 1999 straw poll results are below:

Iowa GOP Straw Poll results
August 16, 1999

Gov. George W. Bush
7,418 31.3%
Steve Forbes
4,921 20.8%
Elizabeth Dole
3,410 14.3%
Gary Bauer
2,114 8.9 %
Pat Buchanan
1,719 7.3%
Lamar Alexander
1,428 6.0%
Alan Keyes
1,101 4.6%
Dan Quayle
916 3.9%
Sen. Orrin Hatch
558 2.4%
Sen. John McCain*
83 0.4%
Rep. John Kasich
9 0.0%
Sen. Bob Smith
8 0.0%

TOTAL VOTES 23,685 �

* McCain didn’t participate.

Some comparison numbers from straw poll and caucus is offered below.

STRAW POLL VS. CAUCUSES
Top 3 finishers in the Iowa GOP straw poll compared to Iowa caucuses results.

1999 Straw Poll
1. George W. Bush 7,418
2. Steve Forbes 4,921
3. Elizabeth Dole 3,410

2000 Iowa Caucuses
1. George W. Bush 35,948
2. Steve Forbes 26,744
3. Alan Keyes 12,496

1995 Straw Poll
1. Bob Dole 2,582
1. Phil Gramm 2,582
3. Pat Buchanan 1,922

1996 Iowa Caucuses
1. Bob Dole 25,378
2. Pat Buchanan 22,512
3. Lamar Alexander 17,003

1987 Straw Poll
1. Pat Robertson 1,293
2. Bob Dole 958
3. George H.W. Bush 864

1988 Iowa Caucuses
1. Bob Dole 40,661
2. Pat Robertson 26,761
3. George H.W. Bush 20,194

Source: Republican Party of Iowa

And of course, the results of this year’s straw poll:

Mitt Romney
4516
31.5%

Mike Huckabee
2587
18.1%

Sam Brownback
2192
15.3%

Tom Tancredo
1961
13.7%

Ron Paul
1305
9.1%

Tommy Thompson
1039
7.3%

Fred Thompson
203
1.4%

Rudy Giuliani
183
1.3%

Duncan Hunter
174
1.2%

John McCain
101
1.0%

John Cox
41
0.1%

14,302 Total Votes
26,000 Total Tickets Sold

The 1999 straw poll is claimed to have been the largest in its history. Those who say this year’s turnout is disappointing may be wrong. If you assume there should have been twice the number of voters and the missing half would have been spread 3/4 for the missing 3 candidates (or potential candidate) with another 1/4 spread among those competing, the results would have been interesting. It may not be far from what would have been reality. Another reason the other 3 campaigns should have been there. That could have put some questions to bed. And that may be exactly why they really missed the event.

Stanford Matthews
MoreWhat.com

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What can be said with any confidence about Giuliani and McCain skipping the Iowa Straw Poll? With Fred Thompson continually postponing an official entrance to the campaign we have clue one. Recently Newt Gingrich renewed the possibility of his entering the race after stating not long ago there was a four to one chance he would not. That may be clue two. And clue three might be worries about the strength of fourth in the national polls but leading in many early states - Mitt Romney.

If one is not secure in the notion of being one of the top three candidates in national polls, competing in the Iowa Straw Poll presents a problem. Spending money with no upside and lots of potential downside. Giuliani, McCain and certainly Fred Thompson are utilizing stealth campaign tactics. Not by launching impressive displays of leadership, experience or headline generating talking points, but by doing very little. It is the conclusion on this blog is that Fred Thompson is milking expectations for all they are worth. He is also waiting for the straw poll to narrow the field and was hoping the front runners and other possible threats would self-destruct or cause problems for themselves before he enters officially. Giuliani and McCain sensed this and responded by avoiding the Iowa Straw Poll.

Reports in the last few weeks suggested Fred Thompson may hurt his chances from waning interest or setting the expectations bar too high. Over the same period, McCain has changed his unpopular stand on immigration and maintained his risky stand on Iraq. Giuliani has remained as quiet as possible on his less than conservative stands on abortion, gun control and gay marriage.

Those who show up make decisions. Many will talk down Mitt Romney’s victory in the Iowa Straw Poll. But the fact is Romney was in a similar position of exposing his campaign to unlimited downside with limited upside. An upset in the straw poll would have been extremely damaging to his campaign. But he showed up, did the work and won the contest by a larger than predicted margin.

Most political strategists as well as political junkies would probably agree that people in politics are in it to win. You have to get elected before you can do anything. So it is basically a case of do whatever it takes to win. Minus unethical or illegal activities of course, whatever works….well, works.

After Romney in the straw poll, Huckabee and Brownback may have won more time in the race. Anyone who placed lower has limited possibilities or none at all. The next post will look closer at the numbers and history of the straw poll.

Stanford Matthews
MoreWhat.com

Iowa Straw Poll Results ( H/T to Cyclone Conservatives )

Mitt Romney Wins Ames Straw Poll

Results are certified by State Auditor David Vaudt and Chairman Ray Hoffmann:

Mitt Romney
4516
31.5%

Mike Huckabee
2587
18.1%

Sam Brownback
2192
15.3%

Tom Tancredo
1961
13.7%

Ron Paul
1305
9.1%

Tommy Thompson
1039
7.3%

Fred Thompson
203
1.4%

Rudy Giuliani
183
1.3%

Duncan Hunter
174
1.2%

John McCain
101
1.0%

John Cox
41
0.1%

14,302 Total Votes
26,000 Total Tickets Sold

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Republican Presidential Hopefuls Hold Debate in Iowa
By Michael Bowman
Washington
05 August 2007

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All but one Republican Party presidential candidate is advocating continued U.S. military operations in Iraq, but most have expressed reservations about unilateral U.S. military action against major terrorist targets in Pakistan. VOA’s Michael Bowman reports, the nine declared presidential contenders took part in a televised debate in Iowa, the first state to hold a contest in next year’s primary election season.

The wide-ranging 90-minute debate focused on contentious social issues like abortion, along with health care reform, tax policy, and foreign affairs.

When it came to Iraq, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani expressed the consensus view among Republican contenders that it would be a mistake to withdraw U.S. forces at this point.

“We should seek a victory in Iraq, in Baghdad,” Giuliani said. “This [battle for Iraq] is part of an overall war against us by the terrorists. It is a battle in that war. America should win that battle.”

Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee also argued against a rapid pullout of U.S. forces from Iraq, but said nations like Saudi Arabia must play a more constructive role in promoting peace in Iraq, and the United States must end its dependence on foreign oil. Kansas Senator Sam Brownback said Iraq’s leaders must show greater resolve in tackling thorny political issues.

Only one debate participant, Texas Congressman Ron Paul, had a radically different proposal for U.S. troops in Iraq.

“Just come home. We just marched in [to Iraq]. We can just come home,” Paul said. “We went in there illegally, we did not declare war. It is lasting way too long. We are losing this one, we should not be there.”

Arizona Senator John McCain urged patience and resolve when it comes to Iraq, despite setbacks he blamed on the Bush administration’s handling of the war.

“All of us feel frustration, sometimes anger and sorrow over what has happened in this war,” said McCain. “It was very badly mismanaged for nearly the first four years. We do now have a strategy that is succeeding.”

Democratic presidential candidates have taken part in similar events. One Democratic contender, Illinois Senator Barack Obama, recently made headlines when he suggested he would act unilaterally to strike terrorist targets in Pakistan - a statement that has been condemned by the government of President Pervez Musharraf.

Obama also suggested he would be open to meeting with some of America’s fiercest critics on the world stage, including Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez.

At the Republican presidential debate, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney had this to say:

“I think Barack Obama is confused as to who are our friends and who are our enemies. We do not go out and say to a nation which is working with us [Pakistan] that we intend to go in there and bring a unilateral attack,” he said.

But Rudy Giuliani said unilateral action in Pakistan cannot be ruled out.

“I would take that option if I thought there was no other way to crush al-Qaida, no other way to crush the Taleban, and no other way to capture [Osama] bin Laden,” he said.

Most Republican presidential candidates expressed support for continued U.S. efforts to promote democracy around the world, although some suggested the United States should lead by example. Some faulted the Bush administration for pressing for elections in war-town areas before peace, rule of law, and economic progress have been achieved.

Not taking part in the debate was actor and former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson, who has been raising funds for a presumed presidential bid, but who has yet to formally declare his candidacy. Polls in Iowa show no clear frontrunner in either the Republican or Democratic presidential field.

So what is the lower tier of candidates doing to propel themselves to the top tier? You don’t really expect any of them to approach the current poll leaders, do you? But then, what’s the point of being in a campaign if not to win? Some candidates in the past have entered a Presidential race to do nothing more than bring attention to the issues, improve their standing in a current elected office, improve name recognition for a future run or just to muddy up the place. Most voters may support a lower tier candidate because they strongly support an issue only a lower tier candidate can afford to promote. Some are so dissatisfied with the top tier and typical choices that the lower tier support is like a protest vote.

You will not get anything from lower tier candidates but the same victory predictions or aspirations displayed by the top tier. The money to win may not be there and the strategy and tactics do not reflect the same strength of the upper tier campaigns. And there is no shortage of trading barbs or wild west tactics within the ranks of those barely visible in the polls.

Senator Sam Brownback has decided the straw poll in Iowa is THE target. With Giuliani, McCain and Thompson not a factor, a second place finish is not outside the realm of possibilities for the Senator. But his automated ‘robo-call’ methods to attack his opponents does not come without a downside. Some might suggest this tactic should be part of the national do not call list. If any voter is annoyed by unsolicited calls, getting one from an automated system on any subject cannot be any more pleasing than the traditional human counterpart. And the complaints from competing campaigns, the subjects of the calls, may cause potential voters to challenge the validity of the claims. But then we’ll know how well this worked sometime in August.

Pure Horserace: Brownback’s Bold Move

July 26, 2007(CBS) When Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback entered the race for the Republican presidential nomination, he wasn’t placed in the top tier, but was expected to still be a factor, especially when it came down to attracting the evangelical Christian voters that comprise a large part of the GOP voting base. But until this point, Brownback has largely been a non-entity in the contest, his fund raising and poll numbers putting him at the bottom of the field.

Finding anything reasonable to discuss about Mike Gravel’s campaign is difficult. Withdrawing from public life, experiencing two bankruptcies, entering the Pentagon Papers into the public record and offering a campaign reminiscent of the sixties’ counterculture does not lend itself to the current campaign. This lower tier attempt will be lucky to net the Gravel campaign a footnote in the 2008 elections.

Regardless of your politics, you gotta love the Kucinich campaign. If you’re on the left, he speaks to long standing and underlying positions of the Democratic party. Peace, programs and solving problems with government intervention. If you’re on the right, he helps the GOP by harassing other Democratic candidates.

Democrat Kucinich: long shot who keeps on running

Tue Jul 24, 2007 1:47PM EDT
By Andrea Hopkins
COLUMBUS, Ohio (Reuters) - Democratic presidential hopeful Dennis Kucinich has just 1 percent support in the polls, six candidates ahead of him and next to no chance of becoming U.S. president. But don’t tell him that.

While this post was presented in light of the recent Democratic party debate via CNN/YouTube, the lower tier of the GOP presents some interesting choices as well. Perhaps one undisclosed purpose by lower tier candidates from both major parties is a chance at a spot on the ticket as a running mate. While John Cox, Ron Paul and Tommy Thompson are very unlikely to pose any threat in a run for the 2008 nomination, the lower tier of GOP candidates has some contenders with more than no chance at all. Brownback, Huckabee, Hunter and Tancredo are established politicians but their contribution to the race may only serve to slow the process of finding a breakout candidate.

The continuing postponements to announce from the Fred Thompson campaign together with this week’s campaign staff changes and rumors of friction certainly do nothing to improve the former Senator’s standing with potential voters or donors.

While Giuliani remains on top the GOP national poll numbers and has actually started to do some campaigning, the fact remains his appeal to the typical conservative base is in question. While Romney continues to strengthen his poll numbers and rankings in the early states, his fund raising has slowed, his spending is up and appears to have relaxed campaigning with the exception of attacking the Dems. And the McCain campaign still appears to be stalled. Right at this moment, the claims by observers and Democrats suggesting GOP fund raising and voter apathy as serious problems may have some credibility. But the recent flaw in Clinton’s armor again suggests its a long campaign season and nothing has yet been decided……nothing.

Stanford Matthews
MoreWhat.com

A report from Fox News dated July 25th is one of four linked from this post that point to something of a shake up in the Fred Thompson pre-campaign and other challenges confronting the unannounced Presidential candidate. The reports also point to wife Jeri Kehn and her political background, a website contract offer early in the couple’s history and her influence in Fred Thompson running for President as well as causing friction among staff. The reports suggest her role in the campaign aspirations of the possible candidate may be the driving force.

The Fox News report indicates Tom Collomore’s ‘reduced role’ was the result of troubles with Kehn while the campaign denies that and says Randy Enright as campaign manager was always part of the plan as well as Collomore’s reduced role. The obligatory unnamed sources close to the campaign contradict those statements asserting friction as at least partially responsible for the moves.

A wire report from the Houston Chronicle quotes Linda Rozett, ‘ We are strengthening the organization as we enter the next phase,’ as an explanation for replacing a top aide. Details from mensnewsdaily.com with source credited to wikinews indicate J.T. Mastranadi, campaign research director of two weeks has resigned as well as Tom Collomore, citing friction with Kehn. The report further indicates Thompson’s fund raising is way down.

The Politico report on this story seems to shy away from the other reports on resignations and quotes leave it vague by suggesting new requirements when moving from exploratory to a full campaign. It appears anyone in or close or favoring the Thompson campaign is spinning the moves as positive with explanations on why former staffers were not up to the task of the anticipated next phase. The opposite spin points to the influence of Thompson’s wife, Jeri.

This may be another indication that the wide-eyed anticipation of Fred Thompson’s campaign announcement may not provide the stellar positioning in the polls supporters may expect. Similarly, the 2nd quarter spin from the media indicating the Dems fund raising and suggesting strength of the Democratic party versus weakness of the GOP may also be overstated. Another characteristic of an exceptionally long campaign season might be unrealistic optimism in measuring candidate performance and chances for ultimate victory in 2008. It’s early folks.

Stanford Matthews
MoreWhat.com

Trouble in Fred Thompson’s ‘Non-Campaign’

Wednesday, July 25, 2007
By Carl Cameron
Growing pains within Fred Thompson’s “non-campaign” for president in 2008 revealed themselves in a big way Tuesday.

Changes in Fred Thompson US Presidential campaign

July 25, 2007
On Tuesday and Wednesday, two of Fred Thompson pre-campaign staffers resigned. J.T. Mastranadi, who was hired less than two weeks ago as the campaign’s director of research, resigned this morning. Whereas, yesterday Thompson’s top adviser, Tom Collamore, resigned “because of differences with Thompson’s wife, Jeri Kehn, a Naperville native.”

Thompson replaces his top assistant

WASHINGTON - GOP presidential hopeful Fred Thompson is shaking up his still-unofficial campaign, replacing his top aide with a former Michigan senator and a veteran Florida strategist.

“We are strengthening the organization as we enter the next phase,” said Thompson spokeswoman Linda Rozett.

From wire reports

F. Thompson shakes up pre-launch campaign

By: Jonathan Martin and Mike Allen
Jul 24, 2007 08:56 PM EST
Though he has not yet even declared he is running for president, Fred Thompson shook up his team Tuesday amid fears he was losing momentum and needed an injection of talent.

Top advisers to the “Law & Order” actor and former U.S. senator from Tennessee had soured on Tom Collamore, the operations chief for the Republican presidential campaign in waiting.

crossposted at:

Maggie’s Notebook | Conservative Blog

FaultlineUSA

Conservative Thoughts

.
Romney strategist Alex Gage has a new memo out arguing that his boss — and NOT Giuliani — should be referred to as the current GOP front-runner. While Gage acknowledges that Giuliani is still ahead in national polls, he notes that the ex-mayor has been losing support for months (using Pollster.com graphics to bolster his claim).

Rather than wondering why the Romney campaign strategist suggests Romney should be considered the GOP front runner the question should be what will happen as the primary election order draws closer and what effect Fred Thompson’s entrance to the mix will have if he stops postponing his announcement?

The quote from an MSNBC report quoted above mentions Giuliani’s campaign recently started acting like a campaign by issuing press releases and spending some money. Their report on McCain includes comments of the media piling on with additional critiques of the Senator’s campaign and staff changes suspected of producing conflicts of interest. The brief reference to Thompson speaks to a staffer choice and a pro-abortion history not causing problems like water rolling off a duck’s back.

Some questions to add to this report can start with how many Presidents in the last fifty years were former governors and how many were Senators? Another question is why is so much emphasis placed solely on South Carolina when results from Iowa and New Hampshire have equally important statistical histories? And last, could it be that this exceptionally long Presidential campaign season for 2008 has produced an unprecedented obsession for continuous measuring sticks on who is leading or will be the likely winner in 2008?

The important consideration for now is not to get ahead of ourselves. The next adjustment in measuring the positions of candidates will be, barring unexpected political tragedy or scandal, Thompson’s announcement and the first few primary or caucus events. If and when Thompson announces, the anticipation will be over and the effect will probably disappoint fans and encourage competitors after the news settles and reality sets in. It will be no surprise on approach to the first voting event if things are substantially as they are now. Mostly Clinton and Obama on one side and Giuliani, Romney and Thompson on the other with a couple of lower tier surprises and another withdrawal or two.

OMG, how boring. Let’s have a few more conspiracy theories or predictions on who will be President in 2009.

Stanford Matthews
MoreWhat.com

By Jim Malone
Washington
18 July 2007

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While Hillary Clinton remains the favorite for the Democratic Party’s presidential nomination next year, Republicans are still searching for a frontrunner at this early stage in the 2008 election process. VOA national correspondent Jim Malone reports from Washington.

A recent opinion poll by the Associated Press and the Ipsos survey research firm summed up the Republican dilemma in the race for president.

Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani led the Republican field with 21 percent, followed by former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson, who has yet to officially enter the race, at 19 percent.

Arizona Senator John McCain placed next with 15 percent, followed by former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, who drew 11 percent support.

But the surprising thing about the poll was that 25 percent of those surveyed were either unsure who they preferred or wanted none of the candidates listed, suggesting a wide open race for the Republican Party’s presidential nomination next year.

Part of the reason for this is that there is no logical heir apparent in line for the Republican Party nomination in 2008.

President Bush is limited to two terms by the U.S. Constitution and Vice President Dick Cheney has said he will not be a candidate.

Political experts thought that meant that Senator McCain, who challenged President Bush in the 2000 Republican primaries, would be the likely frontrunner.

But for a variety of reasons, things have not worked in McCain’s favor.

John McIntyre edits a political website called RealClearPolitics.com.

“There is just an animus among conservative voters towards John McCain,” he said. “So even though he was sort of the heir apparent, he just was not a natural fit for rank and file base Republican voters. And so that is why you see a vacuum out there because after John McCain, there really was not an heir apparent.”

A new Zogby public opinion poll has former Senator Fred Thompson leading Giuliani 22 percent to 21 percent, with Romney and McCain trailing behind.

Thompson is expected to enter the race soon and would be a fresh alternative for social conservative voters, an important constituency within the Republican Party.

Analyst John McIntyre says the Romney campaign in particular has been courting social conservatives, and that Thompson’s expected entrance into the race could have an impact.

“This is where Fred Thompson is a real problem for his [Romney’s] campaign because now, suddenly, conservative Republican base voters who were not enamored with Giuliani’s social liberalism on some positions, did not like McCain, they have an option in Fred Thompson. A real option, a conservative option that they like, so I think at the end of the day, Romney is who it hurts the most,” he noted.

Opinion polls at this early point in a presidential campaign are notoriously unreliable. But experts say Thompson’s quick rise in the polls even before he declares his candidacy is a sign of his potential strength among Republican voters.

Washington-based analyst Stuart Rothenberg sees a three-way battle for the Republican nomination between Giuliani, Romney, and Thompson.

“All three having a chance, but probably you would have to regard Thompson, even though he would be a late entry, as the kind of guy who, if he does what people think he might, would possibly be the best fit for the party,” he said.

Former Virginia Governor Jim Gilmore recently dropped out of the Republican race, leaving a total of nine contenders.

The others include former Wisconsin Governor Tommy Thompson, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, California Congressman Duncan Hunter, Texas Congressman Ron Paul, Colorado Congressman Tom Tancredo and Senator Sam Brownback of Kansas.

Sometimes it is not about policy statements or issue positions. In campaigning there is also the fact that giving a crowd what it expects is important. Gatherings of specific groups as opposed to those of the general public are such occasions. When The Young Republicans National Convention has two prominent Republicans attend their convention some pep talks and inspiration are more in demand than repetition of candidate stands that are already known. So no needs to criticize Fred Thompson for firing up the crowd with some good old-fashioned American ideals

The same can be said for Mitt Romney. There is no fault in eliciting a similar response from the YR’s by building enthusiasm for conservative values by reminding them of how those values will be addressed once in the White House. It was all about core values. Less government spending and tax cuts were the top offerings as well as a few examples on howthat happens. Leave it to Romney to find a way of discussing the drier side of politics and apply it to an audience’s daily life to render it important. That would be by empowering individuals to succeed by returning more of their money to them. (Did you like the use of that fad word - empowering?)

The author in the article below appears to be giving the edge to Romney and based on the articles’s title that was to be expected as a possibility. Candidates do what comes natural or what is a result of education and experience. If you get lucky you can have both. It may be unfair to judge the two candidates appearance at this event as a duel. You can put the guns down long enough to offer guidance and enthusiasm to a known entity like the YR’s.

Stanford Matthews
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A Duel: Thompson and Romney

by Jennifer Rubin
Posted 07/09/2007 ET
On Saturday Fred Thompson and Mitt Romney ventured to the Young Republicans (YR) convention in Hollywood, Florida and we got a preview of two different types of candidates.

Thompson offered a “red meat” speech-playing to the emotions of the young crowd and pulling out crowd pleasing lines. He intoned: “I’m getting tired of having to apologize for the United States of America around the world. I’m tired of other people’s perceptions that we need to apologize.”

Mr Hewitt makes a point. Nothing beats winning and you can’t win a nomination losing elections. All year long there has been talk of particular primaries or caucuses losing their significance. It may be those making the statements have lost their significance. If any of the early states are not important, why all the moves by other states to move up dates?

Two things on earlier withdrawals from Iowa by Giuliani and McCain and Thompson delaying his announcement. Which by the way, if memory serves, should be today July 11th. Giuliani is focusing on later battlegrounds like Florida. He could be conceding Romney’s lead in Iowa. McCain followed suit but probably to lessen stress on limited funds and buy time to regroup without being notices as much. And Thompson’s strategy could backfire although that may be the minority opinion.

And Romney winning the Young Republican’s Straw Poll at 46% followed by Thompson at 28% and Giuliani at 10% is another indicator that actually campaigning also matters. BTW, three of the last four Presidents were former Governors and all three served two terms.

Stanford Matthews
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Romney Rising

Posted by: Hugh Hewitt at 11:08 AM
Monday, July 09, 2007
But nothing beats winning, and no matter all the spin, Iowa is a key test of the ability to organize and win in a purple state crucial to ‘08. The GOPers skipping Ames made one mistake. Underestimating the importance of the January caucuses would be a second huge mistake. You can’t win a nomination by losing elections.

More reports each day spell out the advantages Mitt Romney has carved out in the campaign to date. The strengths mentioned about him personally as well as in business and politics are confirmed by campaign results. But nearly as many reports attempt to raise doubt about the candidate with little or no supporting evidence. It has gone on long enough that one can reasonably suspect the sources of the derogatory reports will keep throwing it at the wall until something sticks. If the trend continues they will keep throwing because nothing is sticking.

Giuliani appears to be throwing his eggs in one basket. Betting his campaign’s success on primaries beyond the early states. When he announced skipping the Iowa Straw Poll and was followed quickly by John McCain, it was easy to assume they were conceding Iowa based on Romney’s lead. But ignoring Iowa and New Hampshire would be fatal by most statistics. Giuliani is focusing on Florida while McCain is trying to keep his bid afloat. And of course Fred Thompson is using the tactic of a professional athlete holding out after the start of training camp. One report referenced on this blog recently suggested Thompson’s ‘brilliant’ strategy might backfire if the anticipation raised also raises expectations too high.

Stanford Matthews
MoreWhat.com

Mitt Romney shows why money matters.

His advertising and strong team spell trouble for McCain campaign
July 7, 2007, 12:48AM
By MATT STEARNS
McClatchy-Tribune
Romney, a former Massachusetts governor, outpaced all Republican rivals in amassing campaign cash so far this year, a total of $44 million. That includes nearly $9 million of his own money. McCain, an Arizona senator, raised a disappointing $24.8 million.

The disparity allowed Romney — a little-known one-term governor of a state considered outside the political mainstream — to vault to front-running status in key early-voting states. And it’s why McCain — an American hero, best-selling author and media darling — struggles to keep his campaign afloat.

Something you don’t find everyday. A take on the 2008 Presidential campaign that appears balanced, thoughtful and correct. Thoughtful here meaning full of thought, not necessarily polite. It is a review of campaign strategy thus far in the GOP side of campaigning. The author may find no argument on the relative strengths of the candidates as well as his insight on Fred Thompson’s possible error in the ‘brilliant’ initial campaign strategy.

The future predictions, expectations or disclaimer of any real fix being visible at this point underlies a good read on the state of Republican politics heading in to 2008. As always, a needless reminder of the length of the current campaign season from this blog is only offered for those just beginning to find interest in the Presidential race. Describing it as a race may be misleading what with all the uncertainty in the field and the public demand for candidate information less than widespread.

Stanford Matthews
MoreWhat.com

Mid-Year Evaluations: Strategy & Next Steps

Each of the campaigns appears to have their own differentiated electoral strategies to attempt to win the nomination. Giuliani seems set to bank on a January 29th win in Florida as a critical jumping off point to the presumptive national primary on February 5th. In contrast, Romney is clearly trying to leverage wins in Iowa and New Hampshire into a wave of earned media, which coupled with extensive ground operations in Florida, Michigan, and South Carolina, would put him in position to win the nomination. Giuliani needs the current primary schedule to stay static. Romney’s camp is probably cheering for states to keep leaping forward.

Thompson’s campaign is tougher to read.

The filing deadline for 2nd quarter campaign finance reports is July 15th. Already there is the pre-deadline chatter about who raised what and candidate reactions or lack of them. One headline said the Democratic candidates were quiet about their 2nd quarter numbers. A quick visit to their campaign sites found Obama’s news section referring to a report that his campaign raised $32.5 million through the small donor strategy. Without analyzing, debating or arguing the details, if that is accurate one must say that Barack Obama’s campaign turned in a stellar fund raising performance for quarter two.

The Clinton website had no such announcement or news item. The reasons for that are unknown but one has to imagine if her money machine had done better the news would be out there. Richardson had no announcement or news item but a headline indicates he came in fourth in fund raising. Coming in fourth in a three person race speaks for itself. But Richardson can take heart that Edwards did report results on his website and $9 million compared to Richardson’s $7 million adjusts the relative strength of the lower tier money game.

The first quarter results had Mitt Romney out front which he won’t be this time according to reports. His $23 million numbers last quarter included a loan of about $3 million so the net raised is more like $20 million and this quarter’s estimate is just short of that meaning a flat trend line. McCain will miss his $10 million goal which puts him in the Edwards and Richardson club. There’s not much out there on Giuliani’s 2nd quarter but his first was around $15 million and unless he surprises like Obama this quarter his numbers will likely be about the same as quarter one.

If Obama’s large cash pile for quarter two is truly from small donors does that mean deep pocket contributors are not interested? If he in fact relied on small donors this time around can he expect a similar result for quarter three? At an average of 50 bucks per donation and 250000 donors would raise 12 1/2 million. He raised $32.5 million so the breakdown would be interesting to see. A wild guess would suggest a mixed bag of large and small donors.

It is no surprise that Edwards, McCain and Richardson are in the single digit millions category. As predicted here before, those three won’t make it to the conventions. Similarly, it is only a matter of time before the Brownbacks, Dodds and other lower tier candidates fall off the 2008 landscape. It is still a battle for supremacy between Clinton and Obama on the left and Thompson, Romney and Giuliani on the right. Nothing else really matters and is only the sideshow in this circus.

Stanford Matthews
MoreWhat.com