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Mitt Romney has been leading polls in early states like Iowa and New Hampshire but trailing in South Carolina and Florida. A report about one of the typical Super Tuesday states, California, displays a trend developing in field polls where Romney is gaining strength in a rich electoral location.

Among likely Republican voters, Romney’s numbers have doubled since March from 7 to 14% and it is nearly six months until the primary. Thus far it appears that the current poll leader, Giuliani, is not being hurt by his liberal stand on key social issues. But then, after all, this IS California yet there is plenty of time for those positions to lower Giuliani’s lead.

The more interesting part of the field polling according to its director is even though Giuliani has an unusual polling of over 30% in every subgroup the numbers are much different among those saying they are paying close attention to the race. This is said to indicate a likelihood of significant shifts in that group as the campaign continues. Giuliani is at 34%, similar to his ranking in other groups, but Romney is at 21%. That’s another large jump in the numbers.

The increase in Romney’s popularity from 7% in March to 14% in the middle of August may mean drawing voters from other candidates since the undecided category grew from 15 to 20% in the same time period. With only a third of voters paying close attention to the race there is plenty of room for Romney to advance. His style is sometimes described as slow and methodical. It seems to be working.

Two noteworthy variables in this campaign season so far are the tentative schedules of primary election or caucus dates and the current Labor Day weekend plans for the Fred Thompson announcement. Regardless of the order of election dates, the handful of elections before Super Tuesday, providing it stays the same, will begin to validate who the leaders are. Whether the assumed official announcement from Thompson significantly changes the race is anyone’s guess. Some say his strategy is nothing short of genius. Others say it will create expectations Thompson cannot be expected to fulfill. Yet others say he waited too long and any advantage he had initially will have evaporated by the time he officially announces. Any way you slice it there will be a difference. Whether it launches his campaign to higher polling numbers or falls flat with Giuliani and Romney reaping the polling boosts remains to be seen.

But this post is really about the Romney campaign. His slow, steady progress has lifted his campaign dramatically during 2007. While election dates may continue to change right up until the end of the year, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Florida and South Carolina are currently in the early hunt. The Romney campaign is leading in Iowa, Nevada and New Hampshire. Whether campaigning can raise his numbers in Florida and SC by 2008 or wins in the first three can change the current outlook is of course unknown.

If you compare Rasmussen’s daily tracking poll numbers from the end of this week with the five week average, Giuliani and Romney are holding steady, Thompson dropped about a point and McCain gained two. While Clinton dropped a couple of points, Obama and Edwards each received a slight bump. Perhaps the recent attack mode of Clinton’s rivals is beginning to pay off. With Thompson’s latest announcement plans barely a week away, many voters may be taking a wait and see approach.

One polling annoyance noticed on this blog was it would have been nice to see numbers without inclusion of potential candidates. This is not picking on Thompson since Gingrich and Gore were among those listed in polls that may have unfairly represented the strength or weakness of various candidates. The psychology of voting may suggest people have more of an incentive to vote to avoid something bad rather than something good. This also tries to explain why mud slinging works and why the perceived notions about a candidate are important. Others have suggested that some people choose a candidate based on who they think will win because they wish to vote for a winner. It may seem absurd as a method for selection, but that is one reason for being critical of polling data. Which brings to mind the common practice of campaigns to market test which messages will appeal to voters. So much for the idea of candidates presenting ideas they honestly view as important. No matter who wins, what we get after the inauguration may have little in common with what was offered before election day.

Stanford Matthews
MoreWhat.com

This entry was posted on Sunday, August 26th, 2007 at 2:52 pm and is filed under Public Affairs, wordpress, Politics, campaign, election, McCain, thompson, romney, Opinion, giuliani. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.